“Obama has made the claim that he can capture Clinton’s voters more easily in the general election than she can capture his. I doubt it.” – Old Elephant Blog, Feb. 11, 2008
I love it when I’m right.
A new poll from the Gallup organization says 28% of those supporting Hillary Clinton will switch to John McCain if Barrack Obama is handed the nomination. A second-day examination of the survey provides further insights.
If the reverse is true, and Clinton gets the nomination, only19% of Obama voters bolt in the fall.
This should worry the super-delegates who will be picking the candidate. But, for reasons I’ve stated before, I don’t think they care. The super-delegates are almost all professional politicians, party professionals or would-be political professionals.
Personal political survival will always be the most important consideration and for them, an Obama nomination carries much less risk – even if he loses.
A loss with Obama at the top of the ticket can be worn as a badge of courage by the elites: “We did the right thing. It’s not our fault that narrow-minded working-class voters didn’t follow along to the Promised Land.”
Most of the liberal elite that make up the super-delegates have little in common and are downright uncomfortable with the working-class stiffs that make up Clinton’s base. These hard core party partisans never understood the appeal of Ronald Reagan and have been suspicious of these voters for decades anyway.
They tolerated Bill Clinton, but only because he managed to succeed. Now, they’ve got a chance to support a real, unapologetic liberal and they are licking their chops to do just that.
