It’s the day after Super Duper Tuesday and the pundits are falling all over themselves trying to bury Clinton and canonize Obama.
But, I’m looking at the remaining states and thinking that I don’t see how Obama can win.
First, let’s be honest. Clinton was under-credited for her victories, while Obama’s were overstated. Just one example: winning Massachusetts was huge and the media immediately set out to minimize the win.
Imagine if Obama had managed to win as big in any state where Clinton had gotten the endorsement of both U.S. Senators, the endorsement of the daughter of a martyred and canonized president and where the endorsement had been the topic of national news for days on end.
Let’s not forget that in the days prior to the primary, we were treated to never-ending stories about Obama’s supposed momentum and seeing polls showing Obama overtaking Clinton in California.
Yet, the Clinton organizaton pulled it off – winning decently in all the major states and holding their own in others. A look at the map, makes Obama look very much like a regional candidate.
But, the real point is that if the primaries continue on the course that’s been set, Obama can tie Clinton down on the battlefield, but he probably can’t win. Obama’s campaign is an insurgent’s campaign and although insurgents can defeat their opponents, they seldom win the war.
This is complicated by the fact that primaries are not true wars. They have an end point and when that point comes, the team with the most delegates wins.
That team is likely to be Clinton. And, the question that Obama must soon wrestle with, is how long does he drag it out?
Much is made today of Obama’s supposed bridge-building. But while he developed a reputation as being personable, Obama in the Illinois Senate also had a reputation for a world-class ego.
Sometime in the coming weeks, Obama may be faced with the difficult decision of shelving that ego and accepting a Clinton candidacy.
Fortunately, for Republicans, I think there will be a long, bloody campaign before Obama gives up.